The GOP's emerging 2012 frontrunners... take our poll
Included in my list below are the Intrade odds for each: the ultimate devil's advocate, as these are people who make a living guessing this stuff- and in a business not kind to fools. The Intrade number represents what a share costs for a chance at a $100 payout... so it's roughly the assigned % chance for the candidate winning the Republican nomination in 2012 according to their oddsmakers.
My new debate partner Aurelius at Pundit Press also has his five below, then tell us what you think... final results published next week. Here's my picks as of now, fwiw:
+ Natural political talent, huge charisma, tough, principled conservative, a real fighter, building a lot of support with her winning touch in the primaries
- Too good-looking by half, slightly silly accent, establishment GOP/MSM/entire Left out to destroy the poor gal... and Levi Johnston needs to get a job on a rig in Siberia
Intrade: 18.6
Sum: Hard to hold this one down... just like the powerful grassroots movement she's so closely allied with
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+ Highly competent manager, economic expert, previous runner-up, looks and acts presidential
- Too good-looking by half, dull on the stump, hiding/laying low while waiting his turn, mostly absent from today's battle for the future of the nation... disappointing, where's some courage and sense of urgency here? The tipping-point is now, not two years too late...
Intrade: 31.2
Sum: apparent front-runner to this point, and the establishment's dream candidate. For the rest of us, the father of RomneyCare has got some 'splainin to do... and we haven't heard a peep yet.
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+ social conservative, respected governor, no apparent skeletons
- Lacks charisma and national political base, has been tepid in support of TEA Party movement... 'Cuda left him in the dust
Intrade: 12.8
Sum: already running, basically
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+ Wiz-kid Reaganite with a resume/record of success that puts most others to shame, impressive manager in most ways, novel background
- still not 40 yrs old, pretty-much choked in his big national TV debut
Intrade: 4.6
Sum: I really like Bobby Jindal... for 2016-2020, though.
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John Bolton
+ Great strategic mind, true conservative -and patriot- all the way
- Pugnacious nature, honest to a fault, lack of campaign experience, distaste for for inside-the-Beltway DC political games
Intrade: n/a
Sum: Love the man... but I dunno if he's serious about recent hints, and came as quite a surprise to most.
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Runners-up: Barbour, Daniels, or maybe Newt- although he's a non-starter for me personally due to heavy, heavy baggage and a number of poor choices from working with race-hustler Al Sharpton to total loser moves in NY-23... Scozzafava really made fool of him.
As a defense hawk, I don't stand take Ron Paul serious... at all.
Sure like Petraeus, would like to hear more from him on some key issues. But the good General seems fairly resolute about not entering politics anyway, and if the politically inexperienced Petraeus did go that way, perhaps a better fit as a VP alongside -say- a Sarah Palin...
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Please choose five:
survey tools
Thanks to all for participating...
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26 comments:
Can't support any of these because I am not convinced that they are Constitutional Conservatives. I could care less if they are Reagan Republicans, we've had too many "Republicans" and not near enough Conservatives and we've had very few of those that follow the Constitution to the letter. My vote? None of the above.
Andy in Georgia
Who qualifies then, Andy- anybody?
Fun Poll, RR! Let's get Blago on there....hee hee.
It's still kind of early to call it, but I'd say mine are Sarah, Marco R. Jim DeM. Chris C. & Mitt.
Blago IS on there!
2nd from the bottom...
I think Joe the plumber would be a formidable candidate. He and Sarah would be unbeatable...
Good job RR. Look at all those votes
Thanks Aurelius, looks like Sarah's running away with it, nobody else is close... interesting
Like you said- 'poised to strike' at the presidency- I like the sound of that, lol
I would really like to see a fresh face. I'm not really a fan of any of these pciks; especially Romney! I do like Paul Ryan, but he already stated he would not run. I worry about Sarah running. She has a role to play, just not sure it is as our candidate. I like Perry from Texas.
DeMint did surprisingly well John, not a fresh face but...?
I'd vote for him, just wish he had a little more charisma and appeal outside of the South
Gotta be a fresh face. Romney has RomneyCare and Palin has too much comedy baggage.
I like Chris Christie.
I love DeMint too, but a social conservative Southerner is not the way to win the country.
Chris Christie has some of the right stuff, but he needs to explain his support for a cap-n-trade scheme. If you don't know about this http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2010/09/post_110.html can begin the tracking.
I could wish for a different poll framework. Who are the contenders is a factual question, even if we're not experts. Who should be, or who do we wish were...contenders, now that's a vote question. IMO
Great site! ...and I wish there were a way to call your attention to something without bogging the blog... but who let the DSCC.org put this ad at the top of the page? "A Right-Wing Senate? Don't Let the Tea Party Extremists Take Over the Senate. Fight Back!"
If we ever did have a "Right-Wing" Senate, it would be the first time and quite a refreshing break from all the "Left-Wing" Senates we've had in the past.
What was Google thinking??
I can't control content with these Google ads, Whoff- they decide what goes the channel based on a bot visit only, unfortunately
But sometimes I click on WH and other Dem ads just to see what the other side's up to... I'm sure many of my readers do to, for the same reason as we go and read Kos once in a while
I like DeMint, and I'm in the Northeast! But I'll start thinking about 2012 after we get through 2010.
As for Christie, love where he stands on the unions. I think that's all he's got. He endorses RINOs. He refuses to join the lawsuit against Obamacare, and now I hear via Whoff above that he's all for cap and tax. Didn't he also slam the AZ immigration law?
Oh, and RR, if people click on the libs ads it costs them money. he he!
As I was scrolling down the comments I noticed Charles Krauthammer and Karl Rove Conservative Commentary, not my favorite people and acting like elitists. If their not Ivy League they are not fit to serve. O'Donnell may of had a hard time paying her college loans back, but she never drowned a blond guy in her past. I'll bet both of them have far worse in their past.
Anywho as for DeMint I remember the same was said about Clinton. DeMint has been a solid supporter of Tea Party candidates and is a solid conservative. He's on my short list.
Yeah LC and Good Ole, this Christie definitely has his week points... endorsed Mike Castle too, and it seems he needs the revenue from cap n trade... NJ's in quite a hole.
I like DeMint, and love what he's doing for conservatives... I dunno if he's got the magic. He sure surprised my in the poll here, not bad
Charles Krauthammer is STILL badmouthing O'Donnell as of Sept. 19. He maligned the Tea Party by saying " would you want a Tea Party person in charge of the Senate?" This was on a liberal show chocked full of liberals and Krauthammer was helping them out.He later backed off and defended the Tea Party, must of figured out he did bad.
Krauthammer and Rove both in the dog house with conservatives now
Very interesting poll, James. I am both surprised and pleased to see SP on top right now. I voted my 5 based on who I would like to see run (Palin) and who I feel sure will run (Romney, Paw-paw, DeMint, and I can't remember the other two).
I like Jim DeMint, though he lacks some undefinable quality of "appeal" factor which SP has locked up, for me at least. But I think DeMint is a true conservative and I appreciate that he's been willing to stand apart from his GOP counterparts.
Maybe Palin-DeMint?
Palin-Petraeus?
The right VP could make it for her...
I like DeMint and Chrisitie but as far as someone who could stir it up Palin is the go-to girl. I like Jindal for what he has been able to accomplish for Louisiana—even though this state has a long way to go and he hasn't gotten everything in line (but still, this is La. A state that has been saturated by democratic policy so the stain will take a while to wash out). I don't know. I'm not completely jazzed by anyone really.And Beck?? BAH! HE shouldn't even be on the list. That guy is a caricature.
Ron Paul all the way.
He is the only one who speaks the true
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKITUOl0NBc&feature=related
LOVE Paul Ryan!! I hope he changes his mind about running. He's young,smarter than b. hussein,has great values and does what he says he'll do.
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