02 December 2015

Top Economist: Even Under 'Unrealistically Positive Scenario' Asylum Crisis Will Cost Germany

Diversity Macht Frei:

Germany's economists are warning of the high costs of the refugee crisis. After Hans-Werner Sinn from Munich's Ifo Institute and Clemens Fuest from the Centre for European Economic Research, now Bernd Raffelhüschen from the Generation Contracts Research Centre has presented his own calculation commissioned by the Market Economy Institute.

The Freiburg academic calculates a long-term fiscal burden for the German taxpayer of 17 billion euros per year if the refugees quickly integrate into the employment market - this is less than his fellow economists. 

But calculated according to the cash value method that incorporates all expenses and social insurance payments over the lifetime of a refugee, according to Raffelhüschen it all adds up to a horrifying amount: even when the immigrants integrate into the employment market within six years 'the long-term additional costs amount to 900 billion euros' he said during his presentation to the Market Economy Institute. 

900,000,000 – or almost a trillion euros. Around one third of German economic output. That is how much Germany must put away to cover the costs of the refugee crisis. And those are only the numbers is everything goes reasonably well, emphasises Raffelhüschen. 

He calls this an 'unrealistically positive scenario' This means if the refugee numbers fall again next year, if the refugees find a job within six years.

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