21 April 2016

Nothing Changed Yesterday
-and Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination

Before we begin debunking, let’s start with the obvious: It was undoubtedly a good night for Trump and unsurprisingly so, as NR’s Henry Olsen predicted on election eve. Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87). 

But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. 

And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all...

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