05 April 2016

YES Cruz Can Still Win Nomination Outright,
NO Paul Ryan is NOT About to Be Foisted on Us,
and When Trump Loses on the 1st Ballot-- He's OUT

The most recent propaganda angle with Team Trumpster has been that 'a vote for Cruz is a vote for an open convention in Cleveland... where the 'Establishment' is going to ram-through Paul Ryan on the 2nd ballot. 
'So you gotta vote for Trump- don't you see?'

Except that Paul Ryan is running out of ways to say 'I'm not running'. 

Yes, the strategy in gaining his current position as Speaker of the House was 'Aw shucks, I'm not interested'... waiting until the demands for him grew louder and wider... then -reluctantly, of course- accepting the will of the people and a powerful new seat.

But he was prepared for that position, and for the Speaker's chair he faced weak competition anyway, with no real challenger to worry about- with the GOP primary contest, it's another story entirely: Ted Cruz will go into Cleveland with a whole lot of delegates, perhaps a # closely approximating -even exceeding- Trump's total by then. 

Ted Cruz's path to pre-Clevo 1237 is admittedly a narrow one- but it does exist. Trump on the other hand is facing imminent defeat in Wisconsin which should all but guarantee he's going to the convention while short of the mark.. 

When Trump goes down on the first ballot, it's all over - and a whole lot of his delegates are going to bail on him. I'm sure there's no shortage of people in early-voting states that regret supporting Agent Orange already and who would be delighted to avoid a lifetime of guilt by it going some other way now.

And forget Trump hints of '3rd party run' now that he's dropped his pledge to support the GOP nominee... like most of his threats, it's hollow B.S. and
will never happen.

Meanwhile Cruz's far-superior ground game -the same one that had him outsmarting Trump's amateurish crew repeatedly as of late- will be rounding up new pledges by the dozens. Actually that's already happening.
The fact is, Cruz is now assembling the kind of support he would have had long ago if not for such an overly-crowded GOP field. Yet Trump seems capped, not able to expand his appeal beyond a fervent, foaming core of hardcore supporters.

I honestly don't think Paul Ryan -who's probably the best the rump GOPe can field right now- is able to compete with Ted Cruz, starting from scratch- he really doesn't have a base or a cause, nothing but a generic Gee-Oh-Pee alternative to Hillary- an utterly uninspiring one.

Plus by August, an actual majority of Republicans are already going to be standing solidly behind Senator Ted Cruz for President- and with substantial momentum.  Speaker Ryan seems to realize that already,
if few others do.

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