07 March 2011

How Gaddafi Lost the Rebellion... but is Winning the War

"War looks over but for the mass executions 
and the climb-down by EU leadership..."

As has become typical, Barack Obama's endorsement was the kiss of death... this time for Libyan rebels most thought would  be overrunning Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli by now. 

Seems serial ineptitude emanating from both US and EU 'leadership' quickly extinguished any hope the opposition initially held of conquering this vile regime: with zero effective aid to the rebels from Obama and the lilly-livered Europeans, what was "Gaddafi must step-down" supposed to mean without consequences to back it up...? That same Gaddafi then predictably told them to shove it.

Now the clueless US administration -via John Kerry- is still standing around making hawkish noises about a NFZ that will never happen while gas prices go ballistic and Gaddafi moves to roll-up what's left of the insurgency... that's right, 
Gaddafi is winning.

Aljazeera reports that the mood of the rag-tag rebels -a largely emotional and inexperienced bunch living on junk food and bottled water- swings wildly between elation and terror. But the overall level of spirit and appetite for combat after taking heavy casualties and being strafed/bombed by Sukhoi jet fighters is withering amongst many of them...
In the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, much of the euphoria and excitement that victory was close at hand had faded, said Al Jazeera's Hoda Abdel-Hamid.
Some feared that pro-Gaddafi forces had deliberately retreated to around Gaddafi's Sirte, drawing the inexperienced and poorly-equipped rebel fighters forward and leaving rebel-held towns exposed to a possible counter-offensive.
"Some people told me all the young people had gone to the front. There is no one left to protect the city," said Abdel-Hamid. "There is an understanding that [Gaddafi's ousting] is not going to happen so easily."  
Al Jazeera's Jacky Rowland, reporting from Brega, said: "For a few days the rebels were making gains, but overnight it would appear that pro-Gaddafi forces took some ground. If the rebels want to capture Sirte, they will have to prepare for heavy fighting along the way.
"The rebels have been taking heavy casualties - we saw a number of ambulances on the road from the frontlines to Brega," she said.

John Bachelor's sources say the Obama Administration has been operating under a false set of assumptions... and in sharp contrast to what they -and many observers- recently thought was a pending inevitability, Gaddafi has now actually all but won the war:

Does John Kerry speak for POTUS?  Who can tell, but my guess is yes.  SecDef Gates pushed NFZ off the table last Wednesday 2; POTUS returned on Thursday 3 to say it was back on -- and David Sanger pushed me to say that it was back on the table.  How to explain Daley saying, "no," and then Kerry saying, "yes"?  

The Obama team is undisciplined, fickle, competitive, inert; and Kerry's remarks were designed to balance out the GOP hawk voices with a Democratic hawk...

The sitrep in Libya is one-sided.  The so-called rebels cannot last; the so-called rebels are a scattering of overheated goofs and their fair-weather friends; and the Qaddafi forces are inevitable.  

Look to the video below and consider these amateurs are as effective as paint-ballers...

Qaddafi forces control 599 of the 600 miles from Tripoli to the so-called "rebel forces." 

The Egyptian military, under the watchful eye of the fussbudget Ikwan, controls the supply route into Benghazi for food, fuel, rearmament; and the Egyptian military is not going to choose a winner that is contrary to the Ikhwan

The "rebel" forces are ill-led, undergunned, chaotic pirates who are already disorganized except as plunderers. 

To the West, Qaddafi forces control the exit from Brega (the main oil depot) to the highway around the Gulf of Sidra. 

The bulk of the country is pro-regime and waiting for a winner (strongest horse). 

The "rebels" are asking for air transport to the battle zone around Tripoli. Spoke Jonathan Schanzer, FDD (frmr Treasury); also Mike Singh, Washington Institute (frmr NSC) and they acknowledged that this is more like Somalia than not, and that pirates and other gangsters are more likely to result than is an organized governance. 

Qaddafi lost the rebellion and yet is winning the civil war... 

POTUS remarks that Qaddafi must go are a measure of passivity rivaled only by Europe. Old proverb: you'd better use that carrier battle group within about six days after you unholster the weapon, or you're risking losing it to mockery. 

Mention that a no-fly zone is unworkable, impractical, and too late. 

War looks over but for the mass executions and the climb down by EU leadership...

Now what, Barry-

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