12 July 2011

2012 GOP Primary Contest: How It's Looking (take our poll)

Iowa:   Bachmann 25% - Romney 21% 
    Pawlenty 9% - Cain 9% 


Michele Bachmann has now shot out-front in Iowa, according to the latest polling... and the numbers are telling indeed-

Although Bachmann’s lead is narrow and within the poll’s margin of error, the best news for Bachmann is her “favorable” number is ten points higher than Romney’s.

Interestingly, her “unfavorable” number is 14 percentage points lower than Romney’s, giving her an incredible 65-favorability margin.

She's clearly surprising a lot of people... and against the expectations of most, rising in New Hampshire now, too. The MSM has of course taken notice, and immediately commenced with appalling smear attacks, as is their custom. But even the far-left LA Times can see that Bachmann is running circles around them... and the money is pouring in.
In my opinion a strong Bachmann campaign -like we've seen thus far- keeps Sarah Palin on the sidelines, and perhaps running for the open (Kyl) AZ Senate seat from her new Scottsdale base. The Arctic Fox has even endorsed the idea of Rick Perry entering the race, making her appear uninterested in running herself from where I'm standing.

Alas, if Perry and/or Palin do enter it could all change overnight for Rep Bachmann, so she needs to continue to build maximum possible momentum leading up to those possibilities. But so far, so good for this talented, principled TEA Party firecracker.

Increasingly unlikely to pull off a victory in Iowa, Mitt Romney is also slipping as Bachmann gains in New Hampshire... where Romney is said to own a house. 

I don't know how many people care about where his various pads are, but Flipper's political support is shallow... tepid... and fickle: this man will never be the Republican nominee for president, imho- just doesn't seem like the Man of the Hour, I can't see it.

And consider that if I'm wrong, and Mittens pulls it off: here comes Trump as an independent, a worst-case scenario for the GOP... but they'll have brought that on themselves by not running a conservative in a TEA Party era that demands it.

Tim Pawlenty isn't impressing anybody by turning on Bachmann early in an attempt to stunt her ascent in Iowa- this guy has the personality of a (broken) parking meter, and looked like a two-faced worm for not confronting Mittens on RomneyCare when presented a golden opportunity to do so in the first debate.

It was probably over that night for "nice guy" T-Paw- fundraising efforts have gone nowhere. His proposals are largely sound, but to me he comes across as frustrated and charmless, lacking the confidence, grace, and charisma necessary to ensure the removal of Obama from  power and lead this country back to greatness.

How can you not love Herman Cain- a cool guy, a real patriot- and what a story.  But his lack of campaign experience, staff turmoil, and shallow understanding of international affairs in a perilous world has this real conservative unable to gain support outside of a fervent base, and thus also unable to break into the upper tier with Bachmann and Romney. 

He now sits at around 9% in Iowa, basically tied with T-Paw. But with Team Cain in disarray, he's having a tough time raising money after an initial burst online- it appears that a bit of Bachmann's rise is coming at his expense.

The others? 

Well, Newt is out of money and unloved-- and Santorum, Huntsman, and Ron Paul are not -and will never be- first tier candidates for the Republic nomination... forget it.

And your opinion, please...

Thanks for participating!

Update 1: Bachmann (video): 
"Government needs to go on a diet" -here-

Update 2: Bachmann Goes Into Overdrive -here-

More Iowa polling data -here-

2012 republican candidatesMichele Bachmann,  Rick PerryMitt RomneyTim Pawlenty,  Herman Cain, gop, 2012 nominee, frontrunner xx2012 republican candidatesx vvv 2012 republican candidates 


Reaganite Republican said...

Hey Santorum fans, sorry I left his name off unintentionally.

He owns "other" now I guess

Christopher-Conservative Perspective said...

Considering those mentioned I am still hoping for a Cain/Bachmann or Bachmann/Cain ticket in the end,,thus far.

Now icing on the cake would be Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House and Jim DeMint as Senate Majority Leader.

Reaganite Republican said...

Not necessarily a dream, my friend

We're going for the brass ring this time!

Anonymous said...

My dream ticket would Sarah Palin and Allen West. We need a really motivated base that is not just anti-Obama but also Pro-our candidate. I think those two could really motivate the conservative base to get out the vote in favor our candidate. However, I don't believe Palin is going to run. I think Perry will enter the race and that Palin will throw her support behind him. Perry is not my top choice but I believe would beat Obama.

Reaganite Republican said...

I like your thinking, but West needs 4-6 yrs under his belt imho, just got to DC in his first elected position ever. I really like and respect him, tho- the guy is a natural at leadership, that's plenty apparent. And his future with the GOP appears bright 4 sure.

If Perry comes in I say it's Perry-Bachmann, that would work real well imho

But maybe she can compete with him... we'll see

Woodsterman (Odie) said...

It's early yet, but will the Republicans please give that Mitt the big ol boot!

Reaganite Republican said...

Never too soon to send Romney packing lol

Anonymous said...

Newt, go away!!

Reaganite Republican said...

He's dead meat, don't worry

Reaganite Republican said...

Perry definitely could turn it all on it's ear

But IMO Santorum was a flop in the debate, seemed too self congratulatory. And to me, his getting trounced last election he ran in makes him look like kind of a loser- he has to explain why his own state rejected him by 20 pts, no such problem with Gov Perry, eh

Dick Stanley said...

No white guy is going to beat Obamalot. But Palin/Bachmann have a good chance. Even your poll agrees.

Reaganite Republican said...

I fully agree a woman enjoys an advantage that our side could surely use, this could be the time

bob said...

Lots of Republican candidates can beat Obama.

It matters not what color or sex the Republican candidate is, but they are going to have better intellect and experience than Bachmann, Pawlenty, Cain, or Palin are showing right now. I don't know enough about Perry yet, to have an opinion.

Too bad Newt and Mitt have lost their conservative luster. Either one would be a winning candidate.

This is why we have primary elections. We will see someone come out of the fray with the right mix of ideology, experience and aggression.

Anonymous said...

Good to see her do well. As for how can you not love Hermain Cain... He is a member of the Federal Reserve this makes him an NWO creep. We would be better off with a Muslim terrorist than one of BO's bank bosses running the country.

Reaganite Republican said...

Won't defend him, Trestin... at this point I'm obviously liking Bachmann, with Perry under serious consideration should he come in.

I love Palin and think she'd do a great job... but negatives at 40% scare me- and apparently her too

Reaganite Republican said...

ZERO for T-paw and Newt, yikes

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