12 July 2011

2012 GOP Primary Contest: How It's Looking (take our poll)

Iowa:   Bachmann 25% - Romney 21% 
    Pawlenty 9% - Cain 9% 


Michele Bachmann has now shot out-front in Iowa, according to the latest polling... and the numbers are telling indeed-

Although Bachmann’s lead is narrow and within the poll’s margin of error, the best news for Bachmann is her “favorable” number is ten points higher than Romney’s.

Interestingly, her “unfavorable” number is 14 percentage points lower than Romney’s, giving her an incredible 65-favorability margin.

She's clearly surprising a lot of people... and against the expectations of most, rising in New Hampshire now, too. The MSM has of course taken notice, and immediately commenced with appalling smear attacks, as is their custom. But even the far-left LA Times can see that Bachmann is running circles around them... and the money is pouring in.
In my opinion a strong Bachmann campaign -like we've seen thus far- keeps Sarah Palin on the sidelines, and perhaps running for the open (Kyl) AZ Senate seat from her new Scottsdale base. The Arctic Fox has even endorsed the idea of Rick Perry entering the race, making her appear uninterested in running herself from where I'm standing.

Alas, if Perry and/or Palin do enter it could all change overnight for Rep Bachmann, so she needs to continue to build maximum possible momentum leading up to those possibilities. But so far, so good for this talented, principled TEA Party firecracker.

Increasingly unlikely to pull off a victory in Iowa, Mitt Romney is also slipping as Bachmann gains in New Hampshire... where Romney is said to own a house. 

I don't know how many people care about where his various pads are, but Flipper's political support is shallow... tepid... and fickle: this man will never be the Republican nominee for president, imho- just doesn't seem like the Man of the Hour, I can't see it.

And consider that if I'm wrong, and Mittens pulls it off: here comes Trump as an independent, a worst-case scenario for the GOP... but they'll have brought that on themselves by not running a conservative in a TEA Party era that demands it.

Tim Pawlenty isn't impressing anybody by turning on Bachmann early in an attempt to stunt her ascent in Iowa- this guy has the personality of a (broken) parking meter, and looked like a two-faced worm for not confronting Mittens on RomneyCare when presented a golden opportunity to do so in the first debate.

It was probably over that night for "nice guy" T-Paw- fundraising efforts have gone nowhere. His proposals are largely sound, but to me he comes across as frustrated and charmless, lacking the confidence, grace, and charisma necessary to ensure the removal of Obama from  power and lead this country back to greatness.

How can you not love Herman Cain- a cool guy, a real patriot- and what a story.  But his lack of campaign experience, staff turmoil, and shallow understanding of international affairs in a perilous world has this real conservative unable to gain support outside of a fervent base, and thus also unable to break into the upper tier with Bachmann and Romney. 

He now sits at around 9% in Iowa, basically tied with T-Paw. But with Team Cain in disarray, he's having a tough time raising money after an initial burst online- it appears that a bit of Bachmann's rise is coming at his expense.

The others? 

Well, Newt is out of money and unloved-- and Santorum, Huntsman, and Ron Paul are not -and will never be- first tier candidates for the Republic nomination... forget it.

And your opinion, please...

Thanks for participating!

Update 1: Bachmann (video): 
"Government needs to go on a diet" -here-

Update 2: Bachmann Goes Into Overdrive -here-

More Iowa polling data -here-

2012 republican candidatesMichele Bachmann,  Rick PerryMitt RomneyTim Pawlenty,  Herman Cain, gop, 2012 nominee, frontrunner xx2012 republican candidatesx vvv 2012 republican candidates