Any serious strike against Tehran would almost certainly trigger a larger Middle East war... and time is not on the Israelis' side: here's how the IDF is likely planning to win, and win BIG:
The Assad regime in Damascus has long been one of a number of deterrents to any Israeli military strike on the Iranian nuclear program. They -along with their Hezbollah allies in Lebanon- would likely launch a vicious missile barrage (at minimum) against the world's only Jewish state if Iran was attacked.
Israel may possess the world's most comprehensive anti-missile defenses, but considering Iranian proxy Hezbollah now has over 40,000 rockets of various sorts -vs 10K just six years ago- and Syria advanced Russian military hardware galore, the threats they pose are not to be considered lightly.
The potentially high price to be paid by Israeli citizens in missile attacks is oft noted by those preaching the perils of IDF preemption (regardless of the fact that it has spared Israel from destruction so many times before). Unsettlingly, Syria even appears to have supplied Hezbollah with larger Scuds capable of hitting Tel Aviv, not just northern frontier towns.
The potentially high price to be paid by Israeli citizens in missile attacks is oft noted by those preaching the perils of IDF preemption (regardless of the fact that it has spared Israel from destruction so many times before). Unsettlingly, Syria even appears to have supplied Hezbollah with larger Scuds capable of hitting Tel Aviv, not just northern frontier towns.
But if you believe -as I do- that Tehran will never give up it's nuclear weapons program without being forced -and also that sanctions have failed- an Israeli attack is a near-certainty, even without US support... Netanyahu has all but said it.
And Israel will wipe the floor with Iran.
And Israel will wipe the floor with Iran.
Some urging caution feel a war would be just the ticket for the teetering Assad regime -rallying the nation in order to kill the evil Jooz, but this begs the question 'with what?' The Syrian Army today suffers from widespread defections and low morale, while a concerned Tehran has sent 'advisors' and equipment (Russia, too): seems Assad loyalist troops are not strong enough militarily to even control their own territory, let alone Lebanon or the
Golan Heights.
Hezbollah and Hamas would be left standing alone on the actual battlefield, yet they and the Syrians' vast number of missiles have got the potential to do some real harm: Hezbollah now even dominates governance of Lebanon proper, and could theoretically employ the country's military assets against their southern neighbor.
But don't think the Israelis can't see all this coming: the IDF has in-fact developed a plan to destroy the entire Lebanese Army in just four hours. And this time -unlike in 2006's weak-kneed Labor administration- Israel's leadership is bound and determined to comprehensively neutralize Hezbollah as a fighting force, removing this long-standing security threat from it's northern border with some permanence.
Netanyahu also knows that continuing developments in the wake of the so-called 'Arab Spring' mostly work to the detriment of Israel- for instance, why wait until the Egyptian military is entirely at the mercy of the Muslim Brotherhood... and they're tearing-up peace agreements, opening their border with Gaza, and arming Hamas to the teeth?
Golan Heights.
Hezbollah and Hamas would be left standing alone on the actual battlefield, yet they and the Syrians' vast number of missiles have got the potential to do some real harm: Hezbollah now even dominates governance of Lebanon proper, and could theoretically employ the country's military assets against their southern neighbor.
But don't think the Israelis can't see all this coming: the IDF has in-fact developed a plan to destroy the entire Lebanese Army in just four hours. And this time -unlike in 2006's weak-kneed Labor administration- Israel's leadership is bound and determined to comprehensively neutralize Hezbollah as a fighting force, removing this long-standing security threat from it's northern border with some permanence.
Most other (Sunni) players in the region -such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait- would be delighted to watch aggressive and meddling (Shiite) Iran get flattened, and the sooner, the better... though far-less enthusiastic for the broader ME war that's certain to follow.
Besides the fact that 'overwhelming force' is the surest way to win these things (i.e the Powell Doctrine), to promptly crush Hezbollah/Hamas the IDF would need to go all-out from day one, with rocketry, armor and infantry taking the fight to the enemies on it's borders... not just drones, limited raids, and bombing runs. After a few days of shock-n-awe in Lebanon/Syria, the conflict could then end swiftly, with IDF troops occupying southern Lebanon and Gaza (at least)- Arab neighbors would not likely tolerate a long, bloody conflict, they just want Iran to lose the nukes: the ensuing conflict vs. Iran's Arab proxies would need to be finished quickly and decisively.
Getting it over-with
Besides the fact that 'overwhelming force' is the surest way to win these things (i.e the Powell Doctrine), to promptly crush Hezbollah/Hamas the IDF would need to go all-out from day one, with rocketry, armor and infantry taking the fight to the enemies on it's borders... not just drones, limited raids, and bombing runs. After a few days of shock-n-awe in Lebanon/Syria, the conflict could then end swiftly, with IDF troops occupying southern Lebanon and Gaza (at least)- Arab neighbors would not likely tolerate a long, bloody conflict, they just want Iran to lose the nukes: the ensuing conflict vs. Iran's Arab proxies would need to be finished quickly and decisively.
Yes, Israel might have one last window of opportunity here to change the balance of power in the region in a dramatic way. Don't be surprised if you wake up one morning soon and read all about it: not only would the result be a more democratic and peaceful Lebanon, with Hezbollah and Hamas wiped-out then perhaps a real peace agreement would be possible with the Palestinians... that's sure never going to happen so long as Israel has tens-of-thousands-of-rockets pointed at her.
Then the IDF can prepare to deal with Islamist Egypt...
Then the IDF can prepare to deal with Islamist Egypt...