27 March 2012

If You're Benjamin Netanyahu, Why Not Bomb Iran NOW... While the Syrians are
So Busy Trying to Save Their Own Hides?

Any serious strike against Tehran would almost certainly trigger a larger Middle East war... and time is not on the Israelis' side: here's how the IDF is likely planning to win, and win BIG:

The Assad regime in Damascus has long been one of a number of deterrents to any Israeli military strike on the Iranian nuclear program. They -along with their Hezbollah allies in Lebanon- would likely launch a vicious missile barrage (at minimum) against the world's only Jewish state if Iran was attacked.

Israel may possess the world's most comprehensive anti-missile defenses, but considering Iranian proxy Hezbollah now has over 40,000 rockets  of various sorts -vs 10K just six years ago- and Syria advanced Russian military hardware galore, the threats they pose are not to be considered lightly. 

The potentially high price to be paid by Israeli citizens in missile attacks is oft noted by those preaching the perils of IDF preemption (regardless of the fact that it has spared Israel from destruction so many times before). Unsettlingly, Syria even appears to have supplied Hezbollah with larger Scuds capable of hitting Tel Aviv, not just northern frontier towns.

But if you believe -as I do- that Tehran will never give up it's nuclear weapons program without being forced -and also that sanctions have failed- an Israeli attack is a near-certainty, even without US support... Netanyahu has all but said it. 

And Israel will wipe the floor with Iran.

Some urging caution feel a war would be just the ticket for the teetering Assad regime -rallying the nation in order to kill the evil Jooz, but this begs the question 'with what?' The Syrian Army today suffers from widespread defections and low morale, while a concerned Tehran has sent 'advisors' and equipment (Russia, too): seems Assad loyalist troops are not strong enough militarily to even control their own territory, let alone Lebanon or the
Golan Heights.

Hezbollah and Hamas would be left standing alone on the actual battlefield, yet they and the Syrians' vast number of missiles have got the potential to do some real harm: Hezbollah now even dominates governance of Lebanon proper, and could theoretically employ the country's military assets against their southern neighbor.

But don't think the Israelis can't see all this coming: the IDF has in-fact developed a plan to destroy the entire Lebanese Army in just four hours. And this time -unlike in 2006's weak-kneed Labor administration- Israel's leadership is bound and determined to comprehensively neutralize Hezbollah as a fighting force, removing this long-standing security threat from it's northern border with some permanence.

Netanyahu also knows that continuing developments in the wake of the so-called 'Arab Spring' mostly work to the detriment of Israel- for instance, why wait until the Egyptian military is entirely at the mercy of the Muslim Brotherhood... and they're tearing-up peace agreements, opening their border with Gaza, and arming Hamas to the teeth?

Most other (Sunni) players in the region -such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait- would be delighted to watch aggressive and meddling (Shiite) Iran get flattened, and the sooner, the better... though far-less enthusiastic for the broader ME war that's certain to follow.

Getting it over-with

Besides the fact that 'overwhelming force' is the surest way to win these things (i.e the Powell Doctrine), to promptly crush Hezbollah/Hamas the IDF would need to go all-out from day one, with rocketry, armor and infantry taking the fight to the enemies on it's borders... not just drones, limited raids, and bombing runs. After a few days of shock-n-awe in Lebanon/Syria, the conflict could then end swiftly, with IDF troops occupying southern Lebanon and Gaza (at least)- Arab neighbors would not likely tolerate a long, bloody conflict, they just want Iran to lose the nukes: the ensuing conflict vs. Iran's Arab proxies would need to be finished quickly and decisively.

Yes, Israel might have one last window of opportunity here to change the balance of power in the region in a dramatic way. Don't be surprised if you wake up one morning soon and read all about it: not only would the result be a more democratic and peaceful Lebanon, with Hezbollah and Hamas wiped-out then perhaps a real peace agreement would be possible with the Palestinians... that's sure never going to happen so long as Israel has tens-of-thousands-of-rockets pointed at her.

Then the IDF can prepare to deal with Islamist Egypt...


libertarian neocon said...

I agree, Israel should bomb already. The only thing that is probably stopping them is that they are almost completely dependent upon the US for smart munitions. If there is an extended conflict they need to make sure they haven't pissed off the US President too much. That is why they continue to wait. Hopefully they dont wait so long that we find out Iran already has nukes.

By the way, I love that Israeli Gadsden Flag!

Reaganite Republican said...

That flag IS cool, forget where I swiped it two years ago

Christopher - Conservative Perspective said...

I also agree on Israel acting now.

Being Iran (Persian*) imports all of their gasoline all their neighbors (Arab*) would have to do is cut it off and this limit Iran's military mobility on the ground, sea and air to a minimum at best within the first day.

It would also do the same for the civilian population with the added effect of outrage of an already outraged people looking to oust the regime.

(*Long history of mistrust and animosity between Arabs and Persians)

Woodsterman (Odie) said...

Bomb, bomb, bomb ... bomb, bomb Iran.

Matt said...

That is an interesting theory. The Syrians are up to their eyeballs in trouble, and may be distracted enough to be a non-factor.

Maggie@MaggiesNotebook said...

I agree with your assessment, and frankly, rather than throwing the world in economic turmoil, if the strike was seriously successful, and if Lebanon is taken out of the picture, as you suggest, I believe it would be a boost to world morale - including much of the Arab world.

A good time, Hillary is dickering with Assad in whatever "cease fire" they are trying to sell. Any good revolutionist worth their revolution will never believe in a "cease fire."

Really fine article, RR.

Reaganite Republican said...

Thanks fellow hawks!

And gr8 point Christopher- isn't it something how Tehran is enriching uranium, but can't erect an oil refinery for decades?

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