...we have all become obsessed with predicting who will win in Iowa on February 1st. Trump, not surprisingly, has been touting recent polling showing him with a lead over Ted Cruz coming down the stretch. However, I feel that there are three reasons why Trump will not win Iowa next Monday:
Trump’s boycott of Thursday’s Debate Boycotting
Thursday’s Fox News debate could come back to bite Donald Trump. With only a few days left until voting in Iowa, Thursday’s debate would have given him a national stage in front of millions of Americans. He could have used the opportunity to shore up conservative voters and distinguish himself between his chief rival in Iowa, Ted Cruz. Coming after Fox News was also not the smartest move on Trump’s part. Conservatives love Fox News and have traditionally also been fans of Megan Kelley. I expect that Trump will regret pulling out of the debate and giving the remaining candidates on the stage the opportunity to hit him hard in front of a huge audience without him being able to respond.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that Trump does not have an organization in Iowa. However, I don’t think he has built the kind of grassroots organization across the state that will be effective in getting out the vote. In a state where rural counties matter, Trump has not built an effective enough organization in rural Iowa. In large part his campaign has focused on the urban centers. In contrast, Ted Cruz has built a solid ground game in all of Iowa’s 99 counties particularly with Iowa’s evangelical leaders. Trump is a huge (or as he would say “yuge”) personality that draws huge crowds. However, Iowa is different than other states. Showing up to vote on the 1st will require voters to spend between 45 minutes and an hour in order of time in order to vote for Trump. With an inferior ground game in the more rural counties, I don’t expect Trump’s organization to get voters to come out and caucus as effectively as the Cruz campaign.
From the beginning of his campaign, Donald Trump has sought to appear as a fire breathing conservative. He has come across as tough on immigration, tough on ISIS and a whole host of other issues. His fiery rhetoric appeals to a certain segment of Republican voters. However, for some voters, there has been a suspicion that Trump is not all that conservative and that he says what he says to attract votes in the primary but will then pivot in the general election. Conversely, Ted Cruz drapes himself in the mantle of Ronald Reagan and claims himself the one true conservative in the race. Trump’s recent comments about Ted Cruz not being able to get along with Democrats and make deals was a failure on his part to recognize that many conservative Iowa voters (the kind that are most likely to come out in the cold and spend time to caucus) don’t want a president that goes along with the opposition. They want a president who will force his agenda on the Democrats and will not compromise.
Of course it is impossible to know who will win Iowa at this point. However, it is always fun to speculate and I would not be surprised if Trump’s numbers started going down in the final days.
Inferior grassroots organization
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that Trump does not have an organization in Iowa. However, I don’t think he has built the kind of grassroots organization across the state that will be effective in getting out the vote. In a state where rural counties matter, Trump has not built an effective enough organization in rural Iowa. In large part his campaign has focused on the urban centers. In contrast, Ted Cruz has built a solid ground game in all of Iowa’s 99 counties particularly with Iowa’s evangelical leaders. Trump is a huge (or as he would say “yuge”) personality that draws huge crowds. However, Iowa is different than other states. Showing up to vote on the 1st will require voters to spend between 45 minutes and an hour in order of time in order to vote for Trump. With an inferior ground game in the more rural counties, I don’t expect Trump’s organization to get voters to come out and caucus as effectively as the Cruz campaign.
Recent Statements about getting along with Democrats
From the beginning of his campaign, Donald Trump has sought to appear as a fire breathing conservative. He has come across as tough on immigration, tough on ISIS and a whole host of other issues. His fiery rhetoric appeals to a certain segment of Republican voters. However, for some voters, there has been a suspicion that Trump is not all that conservative and that he says what he says to attract votes in the primary but will then pivot in the general election. Conversely, Ted Cruz drapes himself in the mantle of Ronald Reagan and claims himself the one true conservative in the race. Trump’s recent comments about Ted Cruz not being able to get along with Democrats and make deals was a failure on his part to recognize that many conservative Iowa voters (the kind that are most likely to come out in the cold and spend time to caucus) don’t want a president that goes along with the opposition. They want a president who will force his agenda on the Democrats and will not compromise.
Of course it is impossible to know who will win Iowa at this point. However, it is always fun to speculate and I would not be surprised if Trump’s numbers started going down in the final days.