27 January 2016

Maybe Trump is Looking for an Excuse for Defeat in Iowa. He Sees it Coming and Will Now Blame Fox

He couldn't just blow it off like Guiliani '12 simply because he stands to be defeated in the Iowa caucus process- that -or losing in a truly earnest effort- damages Trump's myth of invincibility... 

So perhaps he's able to give-up on Iowa -since he's far ahead elsewhere, including NH- now that he has found his scapegoat, Megyn Kelly.

The last poll I saw had Cruz up by seven points among actual Iowa caucus goers, and with his far-superior ground game, the Texas senator appears to enjoy significant advantage there. 

Since mafia-like threats didn't work, Trump has chosen to hide from any questioning or real debate prior to the Iowa caucuses -for which he will blame Fox News- while he kicks-back and airs his vile attack ads in an effort to slander Cruz.

Besides scapegoating potential, Trump's withdrawal from the upcoming Fox News debate also provides him peace with Cruz as far as he doesn't have to put any more effort into fighting him in public for a state he's no longer contesting. No debate, no real campaigning, just air attacks ads and hope for the best... in effect, skip Iowa and on to New Hampshire. 

Trump is above all pragmatic, and Iowa caucus victories usually have little to do with going-on to bigger things -plus Trumps far ahead in other upcoming primary states- so he's got a point... and a Fox News brush-up has now provided Trump his excuse for losing the Hawkeye state. 

I would suspect The Donald knows perfectly well his whole schtick is built on momentum, invincibility, might... and more so than for candidates past, the Trump prestige would suffer a serious ding in losing Iowa in an all-out yet fair-and-square fight with Ted Cruz. 

And no, he won't be doing any one-on-one debates with Cruz, either...
for all the boastful trash-talk and efforts at bullying, Trump hasn't actually got the balls for anything like that. His likely plan now is to try and roll through the rest of the states before too many people wake up and turn on him.

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