16 July 2016

Nice Job Dummies:
Hillary Will Now CRUSH Trump, Entire GOP

The reason has much to do with demographics: Trump has systematically alienated the demographic groups that he will need to win the White House. Four years ago, when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in the presidential election, he won by 5 million votes. Starting from that baseline, Trump needs to win back at least 2.5 million votes just to break even in the popular vote. But to do so he would need to improve on Romney’s dismal 27% support among Hispanic voters. That will be hard for Trump, considering that, according to some polls, he’s viewed unfavourably by more than 80% of Hispanics.

This year, an estimated 30% of the US electorate will be non-white. Trump will likely do worse than Romney and win a small fraction of those votes. Then there are his problems with women voters. In 2012, Obama won them by 11 points over Romney. Recent polls show Clinton winning this group by more than 20 points. Of course, while there are no guarantees that these numbers hold up, if just so long as Clinton does as well as Obama did four years ago, she will be very difficult to beat. Right now, she’s outperforming him.

There is also the Democrats’ advantage in the electoral college, the fact that Trump doesn’t have much campaign money and virtually no campaign infrastructure and the fact that many Republicans are trying to distance themselves from him.

Indeed, it’s so hard to see how Trump can win that the real issue for 2016 may not be the White House, but rather Congress, which Republicans currently control and, in the case of an electoral bloodbath for the GOP, could potentially lose. If that were to happen, Hillary Clinton would have a Democratic Congress and the opportunity to push through dozens of pieces of progressive legislation.

Ironically, Trump’s rise, rather than signalling a turn toward nativist, authoritarian politics in the US, could, in the electorate’s rejection of him, usher in a more progressive political era...

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