30 August 2016

Trump's Slump in NASCAR Country
Deepens Republican Fears of Defeat

The Guardian (UK)

One month on from a precipitous collapse in Donald Trump’s poll ratings, many Republicans are no longer asking whether he can win the White House, but how badly he will lose.

Election models put Hillary Clinton’s chances of victory in November’s presidential election at over 80% – in the words of the New York Times, her chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker makes a field goal from the 20-yard line. 

FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver predicts a 28% chance of a landslide, in which she wins the popular vote by double digits...

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