07 June 2010

John Bolton: Israel Must Strike Iran NOW

Iran Will Have Nukes Before the 
United Nations or Obama Do Anything

"Right now we know about the facilities. ... We know where they are," he said. "We know exactly what their dimensions are, and I think they are susceptible to an Israeli attack."

Bolton said an Israeli military option "isn't there forever. ... If Israel is going to use military force, it needs to use it sooner rather than later."... "Since I don't see any possibility that the Obama administration will use military force, I think what that means – to cut to the chase – is this comes down to a decision by Israel whether or not it will use military force against Iran's program."

Bolton said he believes there is no doubt Israel possesses the military capability to hit Iranian nuclear sites, but he said the Jewish state would need to act soon.

"I think the problem is that the military option is declining day by day," he said. "Every day that goes by is another day where the Iranians can build alternative facilities for uranium conversion, uranium enrichment weaponization, that are in unknown locations that are deeply buried or hardened and that Israel's capabilities just can't reach."

Israel Would Wipe the Floor with Iran... Nukes or Not

The only hope for peace was a strong, timely, and principled stand against Iran's rogue atomic weapons programs... with Obama, obviously that didn't happen.  Rather, his weakness, foolish appeasement efforts, and thinly-veiled contempt for the Jewish state are instead inviting attacks from Iranian allies and proxies, as witnessed in last week's "peace boat" stunt. Israel is one of the only true friends America ever had... sadly, this is being cast aside flippantly by the most disgruntled and radical president in US history, one who shamefully spent 20 yrs sitting in an anti-Semitic church. Alas, Obama has all but acquiesced to an Iranian bomb... but Israel has not -and will not- ever.

If Dear Leader chooses to abandon them more comprehensively should Israel bomb Iran, not replenishing planes and weapons spent in any Israeli attack on Iran would be one way to do it... this would make an IDF move against Iran -in defiance of Obama- all the more risky, challenge being Jerusalem would likely face a subsequent all-out war vs Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas.  If it didn't go as well as '68 and '73, they could run into supply problems if the US withdrew support while the IDF were facing thousands of missiles raining-down from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Regardless, in most any nuclear or conventional scenario, all-out war looks like a real bad bet for Tehran... they have almost no chance of defeating Israel in an expanded conflict, if the Iranians would even fight hard for the widely-reviled regime. And unlike recent tepid IDF campaigns -i.e. Lebanon 2006- Israel would fight this one to win... and win BIG. Tehran would have to be nuts to want this fight... but unfortunately for all of us, they are just that.

Consider that Israel has 200+ atomic devices: while Iran may have one soon, it would not be weaponized just yet... so no way to deliver it to Israeli territory. Even if Iran bought miniaturized nuclear devices from another rogue state, then pulled-off some sort of small-scale "suitcase" nuke smuggled in by terrorists... Israel is capable of delivering a devastating retaliation equal to 2,000 Hiroshimas, turning all of Iran into a glass-floored, self-lit parking lot. While it's commonly noted that the Persian state is much larger in area than Israel, the majority of Iran’s industry is concentrated -in Tehran- and located in a geographic bowl... almost perfectly situated to suffer maximum damage from an Israeli attack on Iran.

And Israeli nuclear weapons are all but unstoppable by Iran: Israel has created a system modeled on the US nuclear-deterrent "triad": nukes thus possible from hardened silos, submarines, and/or aircraft... rendering Iranian first-strike fantasies implausible.  Israel has deployed Jericho missiles on mobile launchers and on underground wheeled transporter-erector-launchers and railroad flatbed cars, making effective pre-emption against them extremely difficult, especially for an unsophisticated power such as Tehran.

The Israeli Defense Forces can also deliver up to 80 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles launched by submarine, in addition to the other 120 warheads sent by ICBM or F15s/F16s. While this capability might not deter the apocalyptic cult in Tehran to the same degree it would logical, sensible, or moral strategists... any nuclear attack would result in instant vaporization of whatever part of Iran the Israelis deem necessary... in minutes. The trouble for the Iranians is that while they're busy betting-the-house on jerry-rigging an Iranian bomb and talking trash like idiots, Israel quietly has their act together... is comprehensively prepared for any eventuality... and enjoys massive military superiority over them- that's the reality of the situation.

Israel also sports the world's most advanced anti-ICBM missle defense... one which may be impenetrable by Iranian missles . Iran can only deliver their 1-2 atomic warheads by ICBMs, once the master the weaponization of the Iranian bomb... and with no other delivery capabilities.
The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force consists of mostly decrepit junk with mediocre pilots, while the IAF is world-class... Israel could count on air superiority deep within Iranian airspace.  In front-line aircraft Israel has approximately 800 planes, with over 500 of those upgraded F15s and F16s. Israel also possesses in air refueling capabilities that can support missions of almost any length. Iran conversely has about 250 front-line combat aircraft consisting mostly of obsolete older US and Russian fighters... and has no known in air refueling capability. They do have 40 MiG 29s... but their only AWACS-style early warning radar plane crashed in a mid-air collision at the 2009 Tehran air show, making all such fighters far less useful.

The technological gap between Israel and Iran is indeed stark: Israel has about 10% of the world-wide arms export market... and based almost purely on the merits of the product.  Were it allowed by the US, the Chinese would keep Israeli plants humming at capacity for years. Conversely, Iran sells nothing in world wide arms market... maybe a few carpets for offices, lol.  Their much-hyped Shahib 3 missle is actually just a hot-rodded version of the the 60+ yr old Nazi V-2.  Meanwhile, Israeli-developed technology is sold to most of the world's top militaries including the USA, India, and China. Israeli UAV drones are perhaps the most-capable in the world, with sales to even Great Britain and the US.

In terms of armor, Israel possesses 1500 of the modern and highly regarded Merkava, while Iran can only field approx. 500 old, obsolete tanks, mostly Soviet models like the T-72.  And there are few who would question the superiority of the IDF infantry forces' discipline, training, and equipment... who would likely be invading Lebanon and Syria anyway, not Iran. 

Israel boasts a recon system consisting of multiple types of spy satellites featuring resolution of cca 10 cm... and with all-weather capabilities. Together with their advanced UAV drone aircraft fleet, Israel can obtain incredibly detailed photos and imaging of all Iranian military installations in real-time.

Forget talk of Barack Obama not allowing Israeli planes to use Iraqi airspace...  Israel doesn't really need that, she can just-as-well deliver conventional or nuclear warheads via ICBMs and/or cruise missiles from her Dolphin-class submarines... once they are through the Suez they are well within range of Iran. Obviously, Israel is the target of a loudly-proclaimed extermination plan: they can't afford the luxury of a Pollyanna world view like Obama thinks is so cool and modern. Bibi will just ignore him and take care of business, what other choice has he... after the scandalously rude treatment he received at his White House visit, he's surely under no illusion as to where Chairman Zero is coming-from in regards to the nation of Israel.

And according to a CSIS paper issued last year, the propaganda line favored by the Obama Administration -that an attack on Iran is wreckless and beyond the IDF's capabilities- is bunk: Israel has enough aircraft as well as the necessary intelligence and electronic resources for the task , contrary to previous estimates.  And there is no need to destroy dozens or hundreds of sites, as has also been claimed; the destruction of seven to nine targets would be enough to cripple the Iranian program:

Lashkar A’bad site of secret uranium enrichment plants in the north near the Turkish border.
Tehranb for the central laboratory for developing atomic armaments as well as more uranium enrichment facilities.
Arak in central Iran, where a heavy water plant is under construction to manufacture plutonium for weapons.
Isfahan in central Iran, near which a small research reactor and a cluster of laboratories for uranium enrichment, centrifuges and weapons development, are situated.
Natanz the main center for uranium enrichment.
Ardekan at the southern tip of Iran, where more uranium enrichment facilities are located.
Saghand Iran’s main uranium mining region.
Bushehr on the Persian Gulf shore, Iran’s biggest nuclear reactor built by Russia.
Gachin near the Strait of Hormuz, the site of more uranium mines and enrichment facilities.

Jericho 3
The latest Jericho 3 missile provides Israel nuclear strike capabilities within the entire ME and even Europe (mind your manners, EU!). The long range of the Jericho 3 also provides an extremely high impact speed for nearby targets, enabling it to avoid any ballistic missile defenses that may develop in the immediate region. Jericho 3 is capable of carrying a 750kg nuclear warhead over a distance of up to 7,000 km... with a smaller 350kg nuke, the missle’s range can be extended even further. According to the NCIS report, 42 conventional missiles would be enough to “severely damage or demolish” Iran’s core nuclear sites at Natanz, Esfahan and Arak.

Iran's government obviously feels that to legitimize the Mullah's power, they need to foment trouble with outside enemies... used to divert attention from Tehran's serial incompetence and cruel, oppressive dictatorship.  But if these 7th-century savages have any sense under those turbans, they need to stay out of a war they can't possibly win.  

Taking-on Israel would be a foolhardy endeavor of the first-magnitude: should Israel bomb Iran, it will mean the abrupt end of their heinous regime... along with much of the country too if these fiends are not toppled before they succeed in making make all of Persia an immediate -and fully legitimate- nuclear target.

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Red said...

Totally linked.

Anonymous said...

Bolton is right. Israel must act NOW before it's too late. Screw the leftards' screaming and anti-Semitism.

Good Ole Boy said...

Great read RR, hopefully Israel will do a favor to America and the world and rid us of this threat. No doubt if they do the Empty Suit will badmouth them. He is a Muslim at heart and hates what America is. The UN will stir up a stink about it to but all reasonable people will be thanking them.

Anonymous said...

Obama and the Eurotrash have truly boxed Israel into a corner. I hope they do whatever it takes to prevent a mideast nuclear arms race.

Conservative Pup said...

James, great post! Linked with pleasure, great job.


Reaganite Republican said...

Yeah, it will be the same as 1983... the whole world rebuked them for hitting Saddam's reactor- but if that hadn't happened, we likely would have faced a nuclear Saddam in Kuwait in 91... I guess he would have kept it, huh?

Anonymous said...

Isreal may be pushed to the brink very soon, should Iranian naval vessels try to accompny a blockade runner. I imagine the Iranian vessels will hit the bottom of the Mediterranean in munites, on live TV. If not have a mysterious collision mid way through the Suez canal.

Anonymous said...

humor yourself as much as you like... if you knew what iranians are really about, you wouldnt be so frivolous with your writings. anyway... whats really going to matter is- that one final judgement day... and im hoping that day arrives soon.

"sarfaroshi ki tamanna ab hamaaray dil mein hai... dekhna hai zor kitnaa baazoo-e-kaatil mein hai."

ck said...

Obama has 2 carrier groups heading to the gulf to protect Iran. Israel better hurry up.

Maggie Thornton said...

James, you have some deep research here. You eased my mind about one thing, and that is airspace being denied to Israel. However, the best option would always be to have that airspace open, I guess.

Great article. This is one to bookmark.

Linked here: http://maggiesnotebook.blogspot.com/2010/06/john-bolton-time-for-israel-to-strike.html

Matt said...

I've heard the opposite of this a while back. However, this article seems more accurate. The wild card, for me, would be the new, top-of-the -line Rushkie air defense system. However, given Russian quality problems...

Well, you know.

If they are going to ac, it should be soon. I can't honestly count on Obama's intentions here.

michigan said...

Tehran has been poking their finger into Israel’s chest as of recent and has been looking for friends in all the right places from their perspective. Putin, Chavez, Ill and Jintao are menaces to sovereign countries as well as democracies and won’t hesitate to throw a wrench into the works. Israel IMHO, will have a confrontation sooner or later with Iran because it is Iran’s leaders self fulfilling prophecy and intent. “Sooner”, will be far fewer casualties and more than likely a non-nuclear exchange, later brings nothing but far worse, for far more people and may play into Tehran’s dream of embroiling the U.S. as well. To the Islamic extremist/ jihadist, death is a win.

Don said...

Great post, RR. Very informative and a good read.

Unfortunately Iran already has enough material for two bombs.


We can only hope that Iran isn't crazy enough to use them anytime soon.

Anonymous said...

I sincerely hope Israel will not have to attack Iran. I have grandchildren and I worry what kind of world we are leaving for them. The prophecies in the Book Of Revelations are being fulfilled right before our very eyes. Could this generation really be living in the end times? The Bible also says though we should live our lives anticipating the second coming of the Lord, but still working/living life as God would have us to do. I don't know, all I can say is I hope Jesus comes soon....

Reaganite Republican said...

Matt, you have a point re. the Russian s-300 system... but to me, that's precisely what's forcing the Israeli's hand now, typical negative side effect of Obama's serial incompetence

You could argue that today's Iran is NOT an existential threat, with no deliverable nuke and Israeli military might

But the problem is they will quickly develop into the actual threat, hiding behind the Russian air defense system- and there is NO doubt they could do the bomb and weaponization in less than five years once protected from Israeli air attack

The wild card then would be if they can stop a shower of Jericho 3's... imho they can't

MK said...

Israel should have done it a long time ago, so should America. But unfortunately, few in the west have the will to fight anymore.

Bob Belvedere said...

An excellent analysis of the currently known state of Israel's conventional and nuclear capacities versus Iran's, and why the time has come for Israel to strike.

How sad, because of that jug-eared nancy-boy in The White House, it has come to this!

Quoted from and Linked to at:
Let No Heart Be Faint. Let Every Arm Be Steeled.


Reaganite Republican said...

Thank you kindly, Robert

Wolverines, indeed~

Government Mess said...

Out standing piece here James! I wish Israel would just bomb the snott out of Iran and get the threat over with. The USA and the UN are complete cowards to address the problem obviously. Keep up the good fight my friend. I will link this for sure.

Anonymous said...

it's time to act, NOW! we can't wait for the lame President or the useless U.N. any longer. Israel needs to hit them hard, and wipe those arrogant murdering smiles off the Iranian Dictatorships' faces. And Turkey should be next.

Paul The Heberew said...

Excellent review...the question remains however as to how many Israeli men woman and children would die in such a battle with Hizbullah to the north in Lebannaon armed to the teeth with rockets and missles from Syrian and Iran, along with Syria and Hamas. Tiny Israel is cornered not to mention the third column of Arabs that live inside Israel, enjoying a high standard of living while having no loyalty to the nation that allows them to live so well and grants them full religious and political freedom.

What it comes down to is making the best of two difficult choices and the best choice does seem to be to take off the gloves and hit the Muslim/Iranian tyrants hard...very hard and put an end to their ongoing war-mongering supporting Hamas and Hizbollah along with the tryanny they exert over their own people. It is sad that it has come to this and that Israel is left no choice.

Daniel said...

Very interesting read... But Iran is the birth place of Cyrus Anointed of God, the resting place of Esther and Mardocai and home to more than 40,000 Jews and 300,000 Christians. It has the most Jewish holy places outside of Israel. How could Israel explode nuclear weapons there without committing a great sacrilege?
In practice how could Israel, the 51st biggest economy in the world, sustain a conventional war with Iran, that is the 16th biggest?
It would seem difficult to go to war with a country that has an economy 4 times greater, a population 10 times bigger and a land area 75 times bigger and win. It would be like France trying to wage war on the USA.
On top of that difficulty Israel has no friends or allies left in the middle-east, Iran has just gained two more (Iraq and Afghanistan) thanks to ?

Reaganite Republican said...

Israel would only nuke if forced too

I don't think they need that at all... just if they were struck first.

There is the possiblity of a burrowing nuke to take out hardened facilities... but that's not a population center

Porky the Crusader said...

Great Analysis! I hope it comes reality Soon.

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