04 January 2012

Iowa Caucuses Only Relevant For
Their Near-Total Irrelevance

Keeping-in-mind the state's pitiful track record at picking eventual Republican presidential nominees, here's considering the Iowa Caucus results and what they mean
(if anything):

Santorum and Romney are locked in a dead-heat late into the night, nearing 25% of the vote each.  Romney appears to be pulling into the lead with a late surge, though. 

Ron Paul is third and Newt a battle-weary fourth, the take-away for Team Doughboy being "attack ads work", shame that it is. 

The rest are left licking wounds and re-assessing hopes in the wake of disappointing finishes, particularly Michele Bachmann (who actually won the Iowa Staw Poll five months ago) and 
snotty liberal-Republican John Huntsman with 742 votes (lol):

h/t Right Klik

How many people voted in this one small 
state deep in the heart of Korn Kountry

Results are still coming in this year, but last time in 2008 a grand total of 119,188 people -only 4% of the population of sparsely-populated Iowa- took part in the caucus process that selected Mike Huckabee (Super Bowl XLV attendance was 103,000+)

Alas, the caucuses are not even representative of the state's Republicans as a whole: later that same year (2008), 
John McCain received 677,000 presidential votes in the Iowa... 
5x the total number of caucus-goers. And paltry sums seen in the (above) chart appear almost identical to 2008's Iowa turnout.

That means this Iowa vote that a ludicrous amount of importance is being slathered upon -with some deeming certain campaigns rendered "confident", "surging", or even "demoralized" by this minor event- represents the voice of just 4/100ths of one percent of the United States population, a mere gaggle that couldn't even half-fill the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

And the delegate count?

Even if Mittens pulls it off in Iowa and goes on to take New Hampshire (where he owns a home/enjoys a large lead), that would find him with  just 12 delegates of the 1144 he needs for the GOP nomination... big whoop-dee-doo.

What's the landscape look like after that?

Newt Gingrich leads the RCP poll-of-polls nationally by 2.4%, continuing a rebound that began last week, and reversing a trend that Romney and pro-Romney PAC-men had instigated with their withering $3M attack-ad offensive. That unprincipled and largely dishonest effort was enough to have Mitt up 1.8% for a few days nationally, but the game's not going to work quite the same in the American south and southwest that dominates the primary schedule from NH-on. Newt's taking the gloves off... and southerners never much cottoned to Mittens in the first place.

Team Romney may soon come to regret how early they chose to go nuclear on Gingrich… he’ll come out both barrels blazing now, and woe be unto the unholy target. Romney should be easy to shred this way in the south, he’s not their kind of guy and all Newt has to do is remind them just why that is.

Polling suggests a possible Gingrich sweep of the south, with Newt up 16% in South Carolina and 7% in Florida. Nabbing that delegate jackpot would put the former Speaker instantly out-front, with the remaining primary schedule (south/west) overall friendly to Gingrich imho.

If you're expecting the 'Santorum Surge' to amount to anything from this point on, you're due for some disappointment: He doesn’t have the money or infrastructure to keep up with Romney in New Hampshire, and he hasn’t even been in South Carolina since early November. As I said yesterday, a vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney, in-effect.

Although fundraising should improve overnight and he'll be getting a lot more press now, Santorum will have to dramatically expand his campaign organization as fast as humanly possible. He may even be wise to abandon NH to concentrate on more-friendly environs of SC and Florida. 

Trouble for him is, that's Gingrich Country...

Iowa Caucus results irrelevant Gingrich Perry horrendous track record Mittens RINO Newt's taking the gloves off newt will win it Gingrich sweep of the south  xxx primary schedule


Mark Adams said...

Based on the razor thin victory (On whats been reported, Romney won by just 8 votes) tells you (all) that Romney is CLEARLY NOT the front runner. But Newt has to at least jab back at Romney and Paul in every state from here on out. You can't just try to get by with positive ads. McCain tried that strategy in 08 and look how that turn out.

Reaganite Republican said...

Newt says those days are over, he's going for Romney's throat now. I wouldn't waste any time on RP, tho... that dog won't hunt

Woodsterman (Odie) said...

I think this will get Santorum some of the money he needs.

Reaganite Republican said...

For what?

Maggie@MaggiesNotebook said...

My prediction, Newt will get his problems worked out by South Carolina and he will be a factor if he can raise enough money to keep going. Santorum needs the money too, and now has a far better chance of getting it.

I thought Iowa was a perennially red state, but it isn't. Hubby pointed that out to me. I was shocked, and of course, they only get it right half the time in the caucuses, but New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries are a different story.

Maggie@MaggiesNotebook said...

Mitt's McCain endorsement? Couldn't happen to a nicer Liberal.

Reaganite Republican said...

You know the thing about Iowa I've realized...?

They like GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS- like farm subsidies and ethanol, for instance.

No wonder they never pick the winnner, the Tea Party doesn't fit with this mentality at all

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