01 November 2012

Ohio Governor John Kasich Thinks Romney's Got The Buckeye State in the Bag

Speaking on Meet the Press, Ohio Governor John Kasich -while noting the race was 'close'- was of the opinion that Romney's all but taken Ohio, and stressed that he hasn't previously made this kind of claim. You'd think the state's most powerful Republican would be close enough to the action to have a feel for Republican mood, momentum, and ground game there
he's not the only GOPer looking at Ohio close-up and coming away with a real positive impression, either):

"Look, they're very close. But I believe right now we are currently ahead. Internals show us currently ahead," said the Governor... 

"I honestly think that Romney is going to carry Ohio. And you know, I have not been saying this. I now believe it's going to happen." 

Kasich said he became convinced after watching the first presidential debate earlier this month in Denver, a debate which most political observers believe Romney easily outperformed Obama. The polls in the days following that debate also showed a sharp boost for Romney and loss of momentum for Democrats and the president. 

"I have never seen a debate have this much impact. In that first debate, I believe that he was able to connect with people. They said 'you know, maybe he does get me.' And that was an important part of why there's such momentum in the state of Ohio right now."

And while yawn-inducing MSM hacks trot-out tweaked poll results that show Dear Leader ahead by as many as five points in Ohio, reality is going to be far less kind to the Democrats than most of them could even imagine- 

Dick Morris says voters have figured-out that 'Obama has NO message, NO agenda', and 'not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the last four years.' His whole campaign is based on convincing people what an incredibly bad guy
Mitt Romney is, but nobody's buying that anymore -except the pre-convinced- and what you can expect (nationally) is a both a GOP Senate AND a Romney landslide (highlights mine):

....the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac Poll is wrong! It shows Obama carrying Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. In reality, Romney is leading in all three states and will carry them all. 

Here’s the deal- The Times is weighting the raw survey data to reflect the ratio of Democrats to Republicans who voted in 2008. True, if we get the same massive turnout among minorities and young people that propelled Obama to victory in 2008, he will win this election and carry these states. 

But we won’t. All the polling shows that the electorate is now much more Republican and that GOP voters are much more motivated to turn out than their Democratic counterparts.

If we weight the Times results for the average turnout of the past four elections: 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010, we find Romney winning all three states. Republican pollster (the best of them all) John McLaughlin and I used exit polls from the past four elections to figure out how many Democrats and Republicans actually voted and then we averaged them together:

FLORIDA NY Times results: Obama +1 Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +7 Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1 Times overstates Dem vote by 8 points 

Correct poll result: Romney +7 

OHIO NY Times results: Obama +5 Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8 Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Dems +2 Times overstates Dem vote by 6 points 

Correct poll result: Romney +1 

VIRGINIA NY Times results: Obama +2 Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8 Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1 Times overstates Dem vote by 9 points 

Correct poll result: Romney +7 

And even these results don’t tell the full story... The Gallup Poll finds that the 2012 election will actually have more Republicans and fewer Democrats voting than any of the past four elections....

So the numbers above are not reflective of Romney’s real strength. He will do even better. And add to them the fact that the undecided vote goes against the incumbent, and you are looking at a real landslide...

btw great new Romney 'closer' ad out (h/t Adrienne's Corner)...

Romney winning in Ohio