04 February 2016

New Hampshire Polls Historically Volatile in the Week Prior, Double-Digit Swings Not Uncommon

WBUR - NPR Boston:
If the primary were held today, the polls point to comfortable wins
by Sanders and Trump.

But it’s far from over, and Monday night’s results in Iowa seem to have introduced more uncertainty. Trump’s surprise loss in Iowa certainly dents his image of constant triumph, and leaves the door open for any number of last minute shifts. 

It’s happened before. In 2004, John Kerry went from 11 points down to
9 points up in just a week and won by 12. 

John McCain zoomed ahead at the last minute in 2008, echoing a similar burst in the 2000 cycle. 

And after months of holding a lead in the polls over Barack Obama,
Hillary Clinton saw Obama appear to surge past her, though she eked out a
3-point win in the end. 

So fasten your seat belts for the final plunge. It’s not over yet. 

Iowa casts doubt on Trump supporters’ reliability: For months now, Donald Trump has been pulling thousands of people out to rallies all across the early states. But throughout the cycle, his supporters have been those that the polls and models suggest are least likely to vote. 

So the persistent question is whether, when the time came to vote, Trump’s voters would actually show up in the numbers projected in the polls. Monday night’s Iowa results suggest his numbers may be less than solid. It’s hard to say for sure whether Iowa is predictive, since the caucuses have a history in recent years of propelling very conservative candidates to surprise victories. 

So Iowa may be an outlier and Trump may recover. But the Trump camp
will take no comfort
from the fact they lost a state where nearly all of the
late polls showed him ahead... 

continued >>>

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